Which Stock Would You Buy?

OpenTable (OPEN) and Amedisys (AMED) – What would you do with these two stocks?

Here are their charts.

OpenTable looks like a rocket ship taking off!

Amedisys Healthcare looks like a rocket about to make impact!

I have been eyeing both of them for similar reasons. Both are currently at nice wacky extremes. Interestingly enough, all I hear about both stocks are negative reviews.

As of July 14th, Amedisys is down almost 50% in the past 6 months and OpenTable is up over 70% in the same time period. Amedisys earned $5.20 a share last year giving it a P/E of 5 and OpenTable made $0.30 a share last year giving it a nice P/E of 146.

No. Ticker Performance (Half Year) Analyst Recom
1 AMED -49.74% 1.9
2 OPEN 72.75% 2.1

Side note: Look at the average Analyst Recommendation on both of them, shows what they know!

My initial thought was the same as everyone, Buy Amedisys and Short OpenTable. Then I say to myself, buying Amedisys is like trying to catch a falling knife. Shorting OpenTable is like standing in front of a freight train.

Amedisys appeals to me because it is a home healthcare stock. They are the target of political finger pointing. It happens in all healthcare industries, they all get their turn. The health insurance industry was under scrutiny, as well as the pharmaceutical companies, as well as the nursing homes.

When you have an industry that receives government money as a large portion of their revenue, there will be forces in Congress and the Senate, that will look to find someone to blame for their budgetary woes. The fact that the SEC is investigating them doesn’t scare me, they always investigate after Congress or the Senate makes a stink. Class action lawsuits are the last thing I am concerned about because lawyers sue every company whose stock goes down.

So why don’t I buy Amedisys? Because the trend is your friend and right now the trend is down!

OpenTable the big problem is their valuation. How do you take a company that earned $7 million dollars and give it a market cap of $1 billion? After checking out their website and seeing what they do I said to myself this could be the next Priceline or Amazon. Amazon went from a retailer to a middleman. Many of the products you buy on Amazon are being sold by a third party. That third party pays Amazon a huge commission for using their site. Is this what OpenTable has in mind?

Mobile phone apps are a big deal nowadays. Although mobile phone usage is still very low when it comes to making purchases and reservations, it is growing more and more each year. As more people use their mobile devices for tasks like airplane, hotel and restaurant reservations, OpenTable stand to gain from that.

The reason I will not short this stock is because in three years time, where will this stock be? How much will they be making? Will they have grown into their market cap by increased earning? I see overvalued stocks all the time, but until the stock starts trending lower, there are still buyers out there.

Remember, when the trend changes there will be plenty of time to buy or short, but until that time comes, sit back, relax and enjoy the show!

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